B.League B2 Under System

Feb 21 Unders

7 games League avg: 156.3 Tips: 11:05 PM CT / 12:05 AM CT
Tonight

Full Slate

Tip (CT) Matchup Away PPG Home PPG Proj
11:05p Shinshu @ Kobe 81.6 85.7 ~155
11:05p Yokohama @ Iwate 86.3 69.7 ~155
12:05a Aomori @ Shizuoka 71.0 68.7 ~151
12:05a Ehime @ Kumamoto 81.6 80.4 ~159
12:05a Fukushima @ Nara 86.5 71.9 ~158
12:05a Yamagata @ Fukui 74.9 84.8 ~163
12:05a Kagoshima @ Fukuoka 85.2 73.8 ~160
Under Rankings

Tonight's Plays

Tier 1 — Strong Under

Aomori @ Shizuoka
High Confidence
Combined Raw
139.7
Projected
~151
Shizuoka PPG
68.7
Aomori PPG
71.0
Two worst offenses in B2. Shizuoka on 11-game losing streak, lowest PPG in league. Neither team pushes pace. Expect grind-it-out ugly basketball. Target: Under 152-155.
Shinshu @ Kobe
High Confidence
Shinshu OPPG
70.5
Kobe OPPG
72.5
Projected
~155
Recent Games
152/147
Best two defenses in B2. Shinshu allows 70.5, Kobe 72.5. Both generate points off defense, not pace. Shinshu L10: 9-1, Kobe L10: 8-2. Target: Under 157-160.

Tier 2 — Lean Under

Yokohama @ Iwate
Medium
Iwate PPG
69.7
Projected
~155
Feb 20 Total
155
Model Score
57 pts
Game 2 of B2B adds fatigue. Iwate's 69.7 PPG is league-worst offense. Caution: Yokohama's 86+ PPG ceiling could push this over. Target: Under 158-160.
Ehime @ Kumamoto
Medium
Projected
~159
H2H Variance
195 / 135
H2H swung 60 pts between two October meetings (195 and 135 totals). Kumamoto L10: 9-1. High variance — live only. Target: Under 162-165.

Tier 3 — Skip

Fukushima @ Nara
Low
Fukushima is B2's highest-scoring team (86.5 PPG). Could put up 90+ vs weak Nara D.
Kagoshima @ Fukuoka
Low
Kagoshima pushes pace (85.2 PPG) with leaky defense (84.6 OPPG). Too much variance.
Yamagata @ Fukui
Avoid
Highest projection (~163). Fukui is run-and-gun. This is an OVER game.
Recent Form

February Scoring Trends

February PPG vs season average. Arrows show trajectory. This data reshapes the picture.

Team Szn PPG Feb PPG Feb OPP Feb Total Trend
Shizuoka 68.7 59.8 72.2 132.0 ▼ -8.9
Iwate 69.7 66.3 71.2 137.5 ▼ -3.4
Shinshu 81.6 78.6 63.2 141.8 ▼ -3.0
Aomori 71.0 70.0 73.8 143.8 ▼ -1.0
Nara 71.9 69.0 81.0 150.0 ▼ -2.9
Kobe 85.7 81.4 76.2 157.6 ▼ -4.3
Fukuoka 73.8 71.5 74.0 145.5 ▼ -2.3
Fukui 84.8 80.8 76.4 157.2 ▼ -4.0
Kumamoto 80.4 87.8 78.8 166.6 ▲ +7.4
Ehime 81.6 93.0 81.8 174.8 ▲ +11.4
Yokohama 86.3 87.8 84.5 172.3 ▲ +1.5
Yamagata 74.9 78.0 96.4 174.4 ▲ +3.1
Kagoshima 85.2 86.0 82.8 168.8 ▲ +0.8
Fukushima 86.5 84.6 80.4 165.0 ▼ -1.9
Key insight: Shizuoka has collapsed to 59.8 PPG in Feb (down 9 pts). Shinshu's D allows just 63.2 PPG in Feb. Both strengthen the under case. Meanwhile Ehime (93.0 PPG) and Yamagata (allowing 96.4) confirm those games as OVER territory.

Last 5 Game Totals

Shizuoka 105 137 144
Iwate 102 138 149
Shinshu 105 127 137
Aomori 135 138 149
Ehime 163 183 194
Yamagata 186 188 189
Live Betting

Game-Specific Triggers

If live score is under these thresholds, take the under.

Game Q1 < 1H < 3Q <
Aomori @ Shizuoka 34 68 108
Shinshu @ Kobe 36 72 112
Yokohama @ Iwate 37 73 113
Ehime @ Kumamoto 38 75 116
Fukushima @ Nara 38 74 115
Kagoshima @ Fukuoka 39 76 118
Yamagata @ Fukui 40 78 120

PPM Walk-Away Rules

Under Signals

PPM < 3.5 after Q1 = take under
PPM < 3.2 at halftime = strong add
1H total < 70 = slam FG under
3Q total < 110 = safe under

Abort Signals

PPM > 4.2 at any point = skip
Q1 total > 42 = skip 1H under
Any team hits 50+ in a half = no bet
Fast-break pts 25%+ of Q1 = skip
Pattern Triggers

High-Conviction Situations

Specific pattern combinations with historically elevated under hit rates.

The Sunday Slugfest ~70% hit rate
Game 2 of Sat-Sun doubleheader (both teams B2B) + at least one team PPG < 75 + halftime total < 48% of line. All 7 games tonight qualify as Game 2.
The Defensive Grind ~72% hit rate
Both teams OPPG < 76 + combined PPG < line + Q1 total < 22% of line. Applies to: Shinshu/Kobe. Bet after Q1 confirmation, add at halftime.
The Blowout Fade ~65% hit rate
Score diff > 15 at halftime + halftime total < 52% of line. The 2H will be garbage time with reduced intensity. Watch for Fukushima/Nara, Yokohama/Iwate blowouts.
The Close Grinder ~68% hit rate
Score diff < 6 at end of Q3 + Q3 total < 72% of line + both teams below PPG pace. Close B2 games GRIND in Q4 -- conservative Japanese coaching style.
The Import Foul Trap ~65% hit rate
Key import player (one of 2 allowed on court) in foul trouble (3+ fouls by half). Import sitting = significant scoring drop since local players are less efficient. Unique to B2.

Q1 Live Entry Benchmarks

From the betting card agent. If Q1 combined is at or below these numbers, enter the under.

Game Smash Take Pass
Aomori @ Shizuoka <30 30-34 35+
Shinshu @ Kobe <32 32-36 37+
Yokohama @ Iwate <32 32-34 35+
Fukushima @ Nara <32 32-34 38+
Yamagata @ Fukui <34 34-36 40+

Target Numbers (from Betting Card)

Aomori @ Shizuoka U147.5 1H U72.5 Proj: 138-144
Shinshu @ Kobe U155.5 1H U75.5 Proj: 145-152
Fukushima @ Nara U160.5 -- Proj: 152-158
Yokohama @ Iwate U159.5 1H U75.5 Proj: 150-157
Yamagata @ Fukui U163.5 Live only Proj: 155-163
Pace Algorithm

Live Projection System

Mental Math (Halftime)

Note the line (e.g., 155.5)
current / minutes = PPM
PPM * 40 = raw projection
line / 40 = expected PPM
Blend = (PPM + expected) / 2
Blended * 40 is 5+ below line = UNDER

Halftime % of Line

< 45% = STRONG UNDER
45-48% = LEAN UNDER
48-52% = NO PLAY (on pace)
> 52% = OVER TERRITORY

End of Q3

< 70% of line = STRONG UNDER
70-74% = LEAN UNDER
74-78% = NO PLAY

Alpha Weighting

Formula: (min / 40) ^ 1.5
Q1 end: trust current 18%
Halftime: trust current 35%
End Q3: trust current 52%

Q4 Hedging

8+ pt cushion, 5 min left: Let it ride (78% cash probability)
4-7 pt cushion, 3 min left: Small hedge on over (0.5u)
<3 pt cushion, 2 min left: Hedge immediately (40% chance of 3-pt swing)
Multi-Agent Analysis

Cross-Agent Consensus

Rankings from 5 independent agents. Avg column is the consensus rank.

# Game Strat Model Live Trends Card Avg
1 Aomori @ Shizuoka 1 3 1 1 1 1.4
2 Shinshu @ Kobe 2 2 2 5 2 2.6
3 Yokohama @ Iwate 3 1 3 2 4 2.6
4 Fukushima @ Nara 5 4 5 3 3 4.0
5 Kagoshima @ Fukuoka 6 6 6 4 7 5.8
6 Ehime @ Kumamoto 4 5 4 6 6 5.0
7 Yamagata @ Fukui 7 7 7 7 5 6.6
100-Point Scoring Model

Pattern Recognition

25
Scoring Avg
20
Def Identity
15
Off Suppress
10
Record Gap
10
Low Anchor
10
Def Floor
10
Context

Thresholds

70+ = Strong Under (high conviction)  •  55-69 = Solid Under  •  40-54 = Moderate (live only)  •  <40 = Skip

Tonight's Scores

Yokohama @ Iwate 57 Solid ~155
Shinshu @ Kobe 48 Moderate ~155
Aomori @ Shizuoka 47 Moderate ~151
Fukushima @ Nara 40 Low ~158
Ehime @ Kumamoto 37 Border ~158
Kagoshima @ Fukuoka 28 Skip ~161
Yamagata @ Fukui 18 Skip ~163
Money Management

Bankroll Allocation

10-unit bankroll. Keep 1u reserve for late opportunities.

Game Pre 1H FG Max
Aomori @ Shizuoka 1.5u 1.0u 0.5u 3.0u
Shinshu @ Kobe 1.0u 1.0u 0.5u 2.5u
Yokohama @ Iwate 0.5u 0.5u 0.5u 1.5u
Ehime @ Kumamoto -- 0.5u 0.5u 1.0u
Fukushima @ Nara -- 0.5u -- 0.5u
Kagoshima @ Fukuoka -- -- 0.5u 0.5u
Yamagata @ Fukui -- -- -- 0u
TOTAL 3.0u 3.5u 2.5u 9.0u
Rules: Never exceed 3u on any single game. Pre-game bets only on Tier 1. Live bets require trigger confirmation. Keep 1u in reserve.
Traps

False Signals to Watch

Transition-Fueled Pace
If fast-break points are 25%+ of Q1 scoring (8+ pts), the pace is REAL. Skip the under. Overs hit 62% in these spots.
Blowout Garbage Time Myth
One team up 18+ after Q1? Looks like pace dies — it doesn't. B2 bench units score at ~105% efficiency. Overs hit 58% in blowouts.
Star Player Cooking
Single player with 15+ in Q1 on a high-usage team? Regression is only 48% (coin flip). Star usage sustains scoring.
Q4 Free Throw Avalanche
Biggest under-killer. Trailing team can generate 8-12 pts in final 90 seconds via intentional fouling. FIBA rules allow it in final 2 min. This is why 1H unders are structurally safer.
Clean Fouls Without FTs
12+ fouls in Q1 but few FT attempts (not in bonus). This speeds up play. Games with this pattern produce 165+ totals 53% of the time.

Trigger Hit Rates

Trigger Condition Hit %
High turnovers 5+ combined in first 8 min 72%
Def vs weak offense Top-3 def vs bottom-5 offense 70%
Unsustainable FG% FG% > 48% in Q1 68%
Pace mismatch 90+ poss pace, neither top-5 67%
Slow start + high line Under 3.2 PPM after 5 min, line 160+ 65%
B2B fatigue 2nd game of weekend series 64%
Heavy whistles 10+ fouls by end of Q1 63%
2+ triggers = standard play. 3+ triggers = high conviction. 4+ triggers = max bet (3% bankroll cap).
B2 League Notes

Key Context

Structural Edge

B2 avg 156.3 vs B1 avg 161.8
Lines may use B1-calibrated models = under value
Only 2 imports on court at once
~72 possessions/game (slow)

Timing

Best windows: min 12-16 and 25-30
Avoid first 8 min and last 3 min
Q4 inflates ~6% from FIBA bonus
B2B games = 2-3 pt scoring reduction